One thousand three hundred and thirty-two

A tropical storm crossed the northern shelf five days before this year's dead-zone survey sailed. The zone came in at 1,332 square miles against a forecast of 7,027, and the storm is most of the difference.

NOAA calls it the second smallest in 40 years of measurement. The Gulf of America Coastal Ocean Observing System, publishing the same area two weeks later, calls it the third smallest since mapping began in 1985. Both are defensible readings and they have not yet been reconciled, which is worth knowing before anybody quotes a rank to a committee.

The number people should watch is the slower one. The five-year average stands at 3,745 square miles against a long-term goal that puts the 2035 ceiling at 1,900 square miles, and a five-year mean is built precisely so that one week of weather cannot be mistaken for progress.

NOAA's measurement release of 5 August 2026, including the forecast figure and the storm: https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/news/noaa-partners-measure-smaller-than-anticipated-hypoxic-zone-in-gulf/ The June forecast and the river loading behind it: https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/news/noaa-forecasts-an-above-average-summer-dead-zone-in-gulf-of-america/ The regional observing system's own report of the same cruise, 19 August 2026, which ranks it differently: https://gcoos.org/2026-dead-zone-report/